IMF Bailout Monitor
Program Overview
Track Ghana's US$3 billion, 39-month IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program — about US$2.8 billion disbursed to date, with a final tranche of ~US$318 million pending Executive Board approval (expected 27 July 2026). This dashboard monitors disbursements, programme reviews, structural benchmarks, and key conditionalities.
Program Status
Data as of: IMF 5th review (Dec 2025) & 6th review SLA (May 2026) (IMF/GSS)
GDP Growth (2025)
IMF 5th review proj.
Inflation (2025 target)
BoG target range
Public Debt / GDP (2025)
IMF staff report
Primary Balance (2025)
% of GDP, commitment basis
Gross Reserves (program)
2025 (IMF projection)
Program Commitment Status
36 Total Commitments12
Met
23
In Progress
1
Not Met
0
Pending
How did we get here?
Understanding Ghana's path to the IMF through historical fiscal trends and structural challenges.
The Path to Crisis
Ghana's fiscal position (2010-2025): Revenue vs Expenditure
Source: IMF Country Reports, World Bank, Bank of Ghana, Ministry of Finance (Updated: Feb 2026)
Failure to transform the Guggisberg inherited economy predicated on the export of primary commodities such as cocoa, gold, and lately oil making up over 80% of export earnings
Unproductive use of borrowed funds by government sometimes with the tacit support of lenders across bilateral/multilateral and quasi-commercial creditors
Higher borrowing costs (reflecting also the excessive opportunism by wealthy lenders or predator lending from the global north as well as the domestic market (as evidenced by the African risk premium))
Fiscal indiscipline, election-related excesses, covid-19 and Russia-Ukraine, inflation, and exchange rate development
The false hope of endowed fiscal space as a result of rebasing of the economy and the conferment of middle-income status
Unsustainable debt accumulation leading to the 2022 debt crisis and the painful Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) that restructured GHS 137 billion in domestic bonds
IMF Disbursement Schedule
Timeline of expected funding tranches and their status upon completion of reviews.
Disbursement Schedule
Planned vs Actual quarterly disbursements
State of Implementation - Key Economic Indices
Comprehensive analysis of Ghana's key economic performance metrics from Q1 2021 to Q1 2024. This interactive dashboard presents GDP growth, nominal GDP, interest rates, inflation rates, and exchange rate trends.
| Quarter | GDP Growth (%) | Nominal GDP (Billion GHC) | Interest Rate (%) | Inflation (%) | Exchange Rate (GHC/USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Q1 | - | 114.02 | 14.50 | 10.30 | 5.70 |
| 2021 Q2 | -13.28 | 102.95 | 13.50 | 7.80 | 5.80 |
| 2021 Q3 | 8.42 | 114.59 | 13.50 | 9.70 | 5.90 |
| 2021 Q4 | 9.98 | 130.14 | 14.50 | 12.60 | 6.00 |
| 2022 Q1 | 3.92 | 142.79 | 17.00 | 15.70 | 7.10 |
| 2022 Q2 | 4.6 | 131.99 | 19.00 | 29.80 | 7.60 |
| 2022 Q3 | 2.97 | 153.92 | 24.50 | 37.20 | 9.60 |
| 2022 Q4 | 3.83 | 185.64 | 27.00 | 54.10 | 8.60 |
| 2023 Q1 | 3.15 | 212.07 | 29.50 | 52.20 | 11.00 |
| 2023 Q2 | 2.55 | 189.86 | 30.00 | 42.50 | 11.20 |
| 2023 Q3 | 2.16 | 206.61 | 30.00 | 38.10 | 11.50 |
| 2023 Q4 | 3.79 | 233.09 | 30.00 | 23.20 | 12.10 |
| 2024 Q1 | 4.69 | 266.68 | 29.00 | 23.20 | 12.90 |
Programme Reviews
Detailed assessment of performance against program targets for each review cycle.
Sixth Review (Final)
May 2026IMF staff completed the 2026 Article IV consultation and reached staff-level agreement on the sixth and final ECF review and a 36-month non-financing PCI. The ECF has not officially ended until Executive Board approval. Mission Chief Dr Ruben Atoyan indicated the Board is expected to decide on 27 July 2026, with a final disbursement of about US$318 million if approved (bringing total disbursements to ~US$3.2 billion).
View Full ReportStabilization Gains Under the ECF
Ghana's ECF-supported program delivered substantial stabilization gains driven by strong reform efforts and significant progress in public debt restructuring. Inflation declined rapidly, international reserves were rebuilt, confidence in the cedi improved, and the public debt ratio fell sharply. Growth exceeded expectations in 2025, supported by broad-based activity, while the external position strengthened on historically high gold export receipts.
Sixth & Final ECF Review
The IMF mission (29 April – 15 May 2026, led by Dr Ruben Atoyan) combined the 2026 Article IV consultation, the sixth and final ECF review, and PCI negotiations. Staff-level agreement was reached on 15 May 2026, but the ECF has not officially ended until the Executive Board decides — expected 27 July 2026 per the Mission Chief.
Final Disbursement & Program Totals
If the Board approves the sixth review, Ghana is expected to receive about US$318 million immediately afterward (Mission Chief, May 2026), bringing total disbursements under the ECF to about US$3.2 billion. Disbursements to date stand at about US$2.8 billion following the fifth review in December 2025.
Transition to the Policy Coordination Instrument
As macroeconomic stability takes hold, IMF engagement is pivoting from crisis stabilization toward consolidation. Staff and the authorities reached agreement on a non-financing 36-month PCI focused on: (i) sustaining growth-friendly fiscal adjustment; (ii) safeguarding debt sustainability; (iii) strengthening fiscal transparency and SOE governance; (iv) enhancing monetary and exchange-rate policy; (v) reinforcing financial sector stability; and (vi) supporting economic diversification and inclusive growth.
Fiscal Space & Debt Sustainability
Improvements in the debt trajectory created carefully calibrated fiscal space under the PCI to address development needs, youth employment, and social spending while preserving the legislated 45% of GDP debt anchor by 2034. Staff assess that lowering the primary surplus to 0.5% of GDP from 2027 could remain consistent with debt sustainability, provided further progress is made on public financial management, fiscal risk management, SOE governance, and quasi-fiscal activities.
Debt Restructuring & Market Access
Significant progress continued on domestic and external debt restructuring. Bilateral debt relief agreements were reached with about half of official creditors under the G20 Common Framework, with steady progress toward remaining official and commercial creditors. The successful resumption of domestic T-bond issuance signals returning investor confidence. Prudent borrowing, the IMF-supported debt rollover strategy for 2027–28, and stronger debt management and transparency remain priorities.
Monetary Policy & Central Bank Balance Sheet
Forward-looking, prudent monetary policy remains essential to anchor inflation expectations. Staff emphasized strengthening monetary policy transmission and the Bank of Ghana's balance sheet. Losses linked to the Domestic Gold Purchase Programme underscore the need to limit quasi-fiscal activities, increase transparency, and recognize future costs in the budget to enhance accountability and oversight.
Sector Reforms & Governance
Energy sector priorities include tackling ECG distribution and collection losses, finalizing private sector participation in distribution, enhancing payment discipline, clearing legacy arrears, and reducing generation costs. In cocoa, deeper reforms are needed on farmgate price adjustments, cost efficiency, and Cocobod's long-term sustainability. Closing gaps in the anti-corruption framework—including meaningful public disclosure of standardized asset declarations—would strengthen governance and investor confidence.
Risks & External Environment
The global environment remains uncertain. While direct spillovers from conflict in the Middle East have so far been limited, higher energy, food, and fertilizer prices could transmit through trade channels. Elevated fiscal risks—notably from SOEs and ongoing quasi-fiscal activities—underscore the PCI agenda's focus on stronger safeguards, transparency, and accountability to entrench policy credibility and rebuild buffers.
Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPCs)
| Indicator | Target | Performance Detail | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantitative Performance Criteria | Meet program QPCs | Mostly met; primary surplus overperformed 2025 target | Achieved |
| Fiscal Primary Balance (2025) | Program primary balance target | Overperformed; fiscal performance strengthened markedly | Exceeded |
| Public Debt Ratio | Reduce debt-to-GDP | Declined sharply; debt trajectory improved | Achieved |
| International Reserves | Rebuild external buffers | Reserves rebuilt; external position strengthened | Achieved |
Indicative Targets (ITs)
| Indicator | Target | Performance Detail | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | Anchor inflation expectations | Declined rapidly from earlier peaks; cedi confidence improved | Achieved |
| Real GDP Growth (2025) | Support recovery | Exceeded expectations; broad-based activity | Exceeded |
| Gold Export Receipts | Strengthen external sector | Historically high receipts supported external position | Exceeded |
Structural Benchmarks (SBs)
| Indicator | Target | Performance Detail | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Debt Restructuring | Advance domestic & external restructuring | Bilateral agreements with ~half of official creditors; T-bond issuance resumed | In Progress |
| PFM & SOE Governance | Strengthen fiscal risk management | Key PCI priority; reforms needed on quasi-fiscal activities | In Progress |
| Energy Sector (ECG) | Reduce distribution losses & arrears | Priority reforms on collection, PSP in distribution, generation costs | In Progress |
| Cocoa Sector (Cocobod) | Ensure long-term sustainability | Interventions provided relief; deeper legislative and pricing reforms needed | In Progress |
| Financial Sector Stability | Recapitalization & supervision | Progress on bank recapitalization and unwinding forbearance; NPLs remain a focus | In Progress |
| Anti-Corruption Framework | Close governance gaps | Asset declaration disclosure identified as key next step | In Progress |
Key Conditions of the IMF Bailout
Comprehensive guide to Ghana's Economic Recovery Framework outlining prior actions, performance indicators, structural reforms, and indicative targets.
Prior Actions
The ECF for Ghana outlined 5 key prior actions necessary for the approval of the program. These actions were to ensure that Ghana was taking the necessary steps to stabilize the economy and meet the IMF's requirements.
Fiscal Consolidation Measures
2023 Budget Approval: Ghana had to pass a budget that emphasized revenue enhancement and expenditure rationalizations.
Revenue Mobilization: Implementation of measures to improve tax collection and broaden the tax base.
Debt Restructuring
Agreement with External Creditors: Reaching agreements with external creditors to restructure debt, addressing severe financing constraints unsustainable public debt.
Strengthening Public Financial Management
Implementing steps to enhance transparency and efficiency in the public spending through better audit and control mechanisms e.g. publication of Audit Report on Covid-19 Expenditure
Banking Sector Reforms
Financial Sector Stability: Measures aimed at strengthening banking regulations and improving financial sector oversight to ensure stability
Energy Sector Reforms
Utility Tariffs: Adjusting utility tariffs to ensure cost recovery and reduce the financial burden on the government
IMF Conditionality Tracker
Monitor compliance with detailed verification sources
Implement E-Levy reforms
Enhance electronic transactions levy to improve revenue collection
Reduce fiscal deficit to 7.7% of GDP
Achieve primary fiscal deficit target through revenue mobilization and expenditure rationalization
Limit wage bill to 35% of tax revenue
Control public sector wage expenditure relative to tax revenue
Complete domestic debt restructuring
Finalize Domestic Debt Exchange Program (DDEP)
Implement Treasury Single Account
Consolidate government cash balances in single account
Gold-for-Oil Program Risk Assessment
Risk assessment and exit strategy for "gold-for-oil" program to reduce contingent liabilities.
Maintain positive real interest rates
Keep policy rate above inflation to anchor expectations
Publish beneficial ownership register
Establish public register of beneficial owners of companies
Increase tax revenue to 15.5% of GDP
Enhance domestic revenue mobilization through tax policy reforms and improved administration
Strengthen VAT compliance
Improve VAT registration and compliance monitoring systems
Finalize external debt restructuring
Reach agreement with external creditors under Common Framework
Strengthen public financial management
Enhance budget preparation, execution, and monitoring
Strengthen anti-corruption framework
Enhance transparency and accountability in public procurement
Reform state-owned enterprises
Improve governance and reduce fiscal risks from SOEs
Improve electricity sector viability
Reduce losses and improve cost recovery in power sector
Electricity Tariff Adjustment (Cost-Recovery)
Prior action: upfront weighted-average tariff adjustment to achieve cost-recovery levels.
Reduce inflation to single digits
Achieve inflation target through tight monetary policy
Rebuild foreign exchange reserves
Accumulate reserves to cover at least 3 months of imports
Enhance social protection programs
Expand Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty (LEAP) coverage
Implement petroleum revenue management reforms
Strengthen governance of oil and gas revenues
Beneficial Ownership Framework (FATF Standards)
Introduce beneficial ownership framework amendments to Companies Act to meet FATF standards.
Establish New Tax Enforcement Capacities
Establish new tax enforcement units and enhance GRA capacity for revenue mobilization.
Medium-Term PFM Reform Strategy
Prepare and implement medium-term Public Financial Management Reform Strategy & Action Plan.
Strengthen Procurement Transparency (E-Procurement)
Publish large contracts and beneficiaries on designated website; complete e-procurement roll-out.
Debt Restructuring (G20 Common Framework & DDEP)
Complete debt restructuring under G20 Common Framework and domestic debt exchange measures.
Power Sector Restructuring & Arrears Reduction
Prepare power-sector restructuring strategy and implement measures to reduce arrears and fiscal risks.
Maintain Social Spending Floors
Protect social spending while consolidating overall fiscal position (maintain minimum spending floors).
Tax & Revenue Measures (Non-Oil Revenue Floor)
Implement tax and revenue measures to meet non-oil revenue targets (floor on central government tax revenue).
Publish Quarterly Debt Bulletins
Publish quarterly debt bulletins and strengthen public debt transparency.
Strengthen PFM & Transparent Budget Execution
Strengthen Public Financial Management using GIFMIS and GHANEPS for transparent budget execution.
Primary Fiscal Consolidation (Non-Oil Revenue & Primary Surplus)
Deliver primary fiscal consolidation by raising non-oil revenue and achieving primary surplus targets.
Maintain Limits on Treasury & FX Guarantees
Maintain strict ceilings on treasury guarantees and foreign exchange guarantees.
Cap Net Credit to Government from Central Bank
Reduce and maintain ceiling on net credit to government from central bank.
Program Quantitative Performance Criteria
Meet all quantitative performance criteria (fiscal, monetary, external) on each review date.
Achieve NIR / Reserves Targets
Achieve specified program net official international reserves (NIR) floors.
Quarterly Electricity Tariff Formula Adjustments
Maintain electricity tariffs at cost-recovery levels through quarterly formula adjustments.
Program Review Timeline
Key milestones and disbursement reviews
IMF Board Approval
Executive Board approves US$3 billion ECF arrangement for Ghana.
First Disbursement
Initial disbursement of SDR 600 million
First Review
Successful completion of first program review
1st Review Completion
Board completes first review, enabling US$600 million disbursement.
Second Review
Second program review completed with waivers
2nd Review Completion
Completion of second review; US$360 million disbursement approved.
3rd Review Completion
Completion of third review; US$360 million disbursement approved.
Third Review
Third program review scheduled
Fourth Review
Fourth program review scheduled
4th Review Completion
Completion of fourth review; US$367 million disbursement approved.
5th Review Completion
Completion of fifth review after corrective actions; US$385 million disbursement.
6th Review Mission
IMF staff mission expected to conduct 6th review of program performance.
Program Completion
Expected completion of 36-month ECF program
6th Review Board Date
Expected Board approval for 6th review and disbursement.