Budget 2026 – An EGP analysis: Consolidating gains, but vigilance required

The 2026 Budget Statement, presented under the theme 'Consolidating Stability for Shared Growth,' reflects a government attempting to balance the books while stimulating an economy still recovering from deep scars. At the Economic Governance Platform (EGP), our preliminary analysis suggests a budget that is directionally correct but operationally ambitious. Key Highlights & EGP Observations: 1. Revenue Measures: The reliance on widening the tax net rather than introducing new taxes is a welcome shift. The digitalization of property rates and the streamline of VAT invoicing are long-overdue reforms. However, EGP cautions that administrative efficiency takes time to yield results. If these measures underperform, the government may be forced to cut expenditure or borrow more — neither of which is desirable. 2. Expenditure Control: The budget proposes a decline in the deficit to 3.5% of GDP. This signal of fiscal discipline is crucial for investor confidence. Yet, the wage bill and interest payments continue to consume over 60% of domestic revenue. EGP advocates for a more aggressive rationalization of non-essential recurrent expenditure to free up fiscal space. 3. Social Protection: We note the increased allocation to LEAP and the School Feeding Programme. In a time of rising cost of living, protecting the vulnerable is non-negotiable. EGP will be monitoring the timely release of these funds, as allocation does not always equal disbursement. 4. Debt Sustainability: The budget hinges on the successful completion of external debt restructuring. EGP urges the government to be transparent about the terms of these agreements and their long-term implications for Ghana’s creditworthiness. Conclusion: The 2026 Budget offers a pathway to stability, but it is paved with implementation risks. EGP calls on Parliament to exercise rigorous oversight and on citizens to demand value for every cedi spent. We are not out of the woods yet, but with discipline and vigilance, recovery is within reach.