Fitch Solutions has projected that Ghanaโs Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) could decline to 16.5% by 2026, signalling expectations of easing inflation pressures and a gradually stabilising macroeconomic environment. This projection comes at a critical moment, as the Bank of Ghanaโs Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this week to set the next policy rate.
A potential downward trajectory in the policy rate reflects improving inflation dynamics, strengthened fiscal consolidation under the IMF-supported programme, and a recovering cedi. However, the path to lower interest rates will depend heavily on sustained policy credibility, revenue performance, and disciplined expenditure management.
For businesses and households, a future easing in the policy rate would mean lower borrowing costs, improved access to credit, and reduced pressure on the private sector. But Ghana is not there yet. Inflation, though declining, remains above target; global conditions are still uncertain; and domestic revenue mobilisation remains fragile.
As the MPC prepares its decision this week, EGP will be monitoring three key areas:
- Inflation Trends: Whether the pace of disinflation is strong enough to justify a rate hold – or even the beginning of cautious easing.
- Exchange Rate Stability: Continued pressure on the cedi could delay any policy rate reduction.
- Fiscal Consolidation: Sustained progress on revenue reforms and expenditure discipline will be critical in anchoring investor confidence and supporting medium-term monetary easing.
Fitchโs forecast offers optimism, but it also highlights the importance of staying committed to the reforms that make lower interest rates possible.
EGP will continue to track these developments and engage citizens on how monetary policy decisions affect livelihoods, investment, and economic recovery.
Open Society Foundations Ghana Anti-Corruption Coalition Africa Centre for Energy Policy OXFAM in Ghana